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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate

The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."

Request for Broader Discussion

Westminster should participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."